NVCA 2026 Yearbook | The Venture Industry in Transition
NVCA 2026 Yearbook
The Venture Industry in Transition

$320 billion deployed. 65% in AI. 859 unicorns waiting. The 2025 venture market was two markets stacked on top of each other.

$320B
Capital Deployed
51% increase YoY
65.4%
AI Share of Deal Value
Up from 50.9% in 2024
$67B
VC Fundraising
Lowest in 9 years
859
Active Unicorns
$4.34T aggregate valuation
$217B
Exit Value
2x 2024, still 27% of 2021 peak
"America remains the best place in the world to start a company, to fund a company, and to build something that matters. That advantage isn't guaranteed. It's earned every year..."
Bobby Franklin, President & CEO, NVCA

Investing Capital

US venture deployed $320 billion across 15,352 deals in 2025 — but the headline number describes two markets stacked on top of each other.

US VC Deal Flow by Year

Deal count was basically flat — up less than 1%. The entire surge came from bigger checks with the top five companies (OpenAI, CoreWeave, xAI, Anthropic, and Databricks) raising nearly $60 billion collectively.

AI Is Eating Venture Capital

AI's share of VC deal value has gone from 10% to 65% in a decade. In 2025, AI companies captured $222B — more than the entire US VC market deployed as recently as 2020.

$222B
AI deal value in 2025
6.5x larger than AI deal value in 2020 ($34B)
39.4%
AI share of deal count
Not just mega-deals — AI dominated at every stage from seed through growth
~30%
Circular AI capital
Estimated share involving hyperscaler-to-model-lab capital recycling

2025 US VC Deal Value by Sector ($B)

Software ($166.6B) dominates because most AI companies are classified as software. Strip the AI mega-rounds and life sciences' share returns to roughly 20%, right in line with its historical average.

2025 US VC Deals by Stage

$22.3B
Pre-seed/Seed
5,049 deals
$70.1B
Early VC
5,166 deals
$126.9B
Later VC
4,167 deals
$100.6B
Venture Growth
937 deals

Round labels are increasingly meaningless. In 2025, 14 seed or pre-seed deals exceeded $100 million. The median seed pre-money valuation hit $16 million, up 78% from the 2021 peak.

US VC Mega-Deals ($100M+) by Year

487 mega-deals. 3.2% of deal count. 67% of total value.
Remove them and the remaining ~14,865 deals totaled about $105 billion at an average of $7.1 million — a solid but unremarkable year, comparable to 2019 or early 2020. The "$320 billion venture boom" is, for most participants, a $105 billion market with a $215 billion AI overlay on top.

Top 10 VC-Backed IPOs of 2025

CompanySectorExit Value
CoreWeaveAI/Cloud$17.1B
FigmaDesign Software$15.7B
ChimeFinTech$9.1B
BETA TechnologiesElectric Aviation$6.6B
CircleCrypto$6.4B
NetskopeCybersecurity$6.4B
Firefly AerospaceSpace Tech$5.6B
NavanAI/Travel$5.5B
Figure TechnologyAI/FinTech$4.6B
Via TransportationAI/Transportation$3.3B

49 VC-backed IPOs generated $105.2B in exit value. The median IPO pre-money valuation hit a record $1.05 billion. The return multiple hit 8.16x. But 67% of unicorn IPOs were priced below their last private valuation.

Investment by State

California captured $191.2 billion — roughly 60% of all US venture capital — driven almost entirely by AI. The top three states accounted for nearly 75% of all dollars invested.

60%
California's share of US VC
$191.2B across 4,846 deals
75%
Top 3 states combined share
CA, NY, MA dominate
51
States CA investors invested into
Up from 40 in 2007, 45 in 2015
$12.8B
Texas venture investment
4th largest, anchored by defense/aerospace
$7.2B
Florida venture investment
Post-pandemic migration continues
70%
Fund closes in Bay Area/NY/LA/Boston
Nearly all VC fund formation in 4 metros
2025 Drag to explore 2010–2025

Fundraising & Exits

The liquidity crisis is the thread connecting every section of this yearbook.

US VC Exit Value by Year ($B)

The Vicious Exit Cycle
Companies stay private → exits don't happen → LPs don't receive distributions → LPs can't recommit → fundraising collapses → fewer new funds → less capital for startups → companies raise private mega-rounds → the backlog grows.

Unicorn Backlog: Count & Aggregate Valuation

17.5 years
Theoretical queue to exit at 49 IPOs/year
$106B
Secondary market volume in 2025
Only 5%
Of unicorns meet the bar to go public ($300M+ revenue, rule of 40)

US VC Fundraising by Year

101
First-time funds in 2025
Lowest since 2007, down 77.9% from 457 in 2021
32.9%
Top 10 funds' share of all VC capital
Up 2.5x from 13% in 2021
2,984
Total VC firms in existence
First-ever decline, down from 3,054

Two Markets, One Headline

The 2025 venture market is really two markets. One is the AI market — roughly $220 billion, dominated by a small number of very large rounds, fueled by corporate strategics and sovereign wealth funds. The other is everything else — roughly $100 billion, spread across a variety of sectors, operating at levels that look like a normal, healthy venture year. The confusion comes from adding them together.

2025 Policy Landscape

The most capital-formation-friendly SEC policy environment since the JOBS Act, combined with rising national security restrictions on cross-border capital flows.

OBBBA Tax Wins

Permanent R&D expensing restored. QSBS cap raised to $75M with phased exclusion. Carried interest preserved.

AI Regulation

Federal push for innovation-first approach meets state-level resistance. California signs landmark AI transparency bill SB 54.

Foreign Investment

COINS Act expands outbound investment restrictions. CFIUS reform tightens scrutiny on adversary-linked capital.

SEC Reform

Chairman Atkins withdrew 14 pending rulemakings. Eased 506(c) verification. Most capital-formation-friendly SEC since JOBS Act.

Energy & Data Centers

AI Action Plan expedites data center permitting. States compete for $100B+ in projected annual data center capex through 2028.

Digital Assets

GENIUS Act creates first federal stablecoin framework. SEC establishes Crypto Task Force under Commissioner Peirce.

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